Back in September W. Bradford Wilcox and Wendy Wang published an American Enterprise Institute report titled The Marriage Divide: How and Why Working-Class Families Are More Fragile Today. I’ve written previously about the NYT response to the report, but not about the data in the report itself. For the most part the report features refreshed data to make the case that Wilcox has been making since at least 2010; marriage has become highly stratified by class. Figure 1 of the report shows the share of adults age 18-55 who are currently married, by class:
Figure 4 shows the percentage of children born out of wedlock by class:
One of the main points of the paper is that the stratification of marriage by class is being partially masked by immigration. As the Executive Summary explains:
The class divide would be even larger were it not for the presence of immigrants, who are disproportionately married and members of working-class or poor families.
In the Appendix they re run several of the breakdowns to show the stratification with immigrants excluded. Figure A5 shows what figure A1 (above) would look like excluding immigrants, and this allows a side by side comparison:
Figure A7 allows the same side by side comparison for out of wedlock birth rates:
What these charts can’t tell us, however, is what this will look like for the next generation. I haven’t seen data for other immigrant groups, but we know that for Hispanics* at least subsequent generations fare terribly under our for elites only marriage model.
Normally when you see divorce rates broken out by race, Hispanics have a slightly higher divorce rate than Whites, and a much lower divorce rate than Blacks:
But lumping all Hispanics together masks the fact that foreign born Hispanics have a much lower divorce rate than native born Hispanics:
Native born Hispanics also have much higher out of wedlock birth rates than foreign born Hispanics.
Hispanic women who gave birth were more likely to be unmarried (42%) than were non-Hispanic women (34%) who gave birth. The share of out-of-wedlock births to Hispanic women immigrants (35%) was nearly equal to that of non-Hispanic women and was much lower than the share for native-born Hispanic women (50%).
Not all of our foreign born population is Hispanic, but I can see no reason to expect that the same family model that is a disaster for poor and working class Whites, Blacks, and Hispanics will not be similarly destructive to the next generation of poor and working class immigrants across the board.
*According to this source, 45% of current immigrants are Hispanic.
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Nice post Mister “D”. I know that here in Ontario it makes no sense to get married to have a kid.The welfare system is much more beneficial for a single woman than a married woman.They get everything for free.Medical,dental,eye etc.etc.The married woman would have to pay for everything or at least most of it.
As a foreign-born Hispanic, I can testify that this data matches my observations.
A lot of this really is economic, I think. The lower you go, the less sense it makes to women to marry because the men aren’t bringing many resources to the table relative to what they can bring to the table themselves, and that therefore the opportunity cost of lost freedom of action that comes from marriage isn’t being outweighed by combined resource advantages.
In the “winner” class, it plays out in the opposite way — namely that the opportunity cost in terms of foregone additional resources of remaining single is far outweighed by the benefits of either combined resources or the very large resource that the H is bringing to the table, so marriage is a given.
It’s also socially reinforced, too, of course, but I think that the main driver here is economic.
The economic incentive is not really economic, but an incentive from government. First generation immigrant men aren’t bringing home great money. They are very often working in the margins of our labor market. However, the government can’t offer his wife the kind of cash and prizes it would like to offer her as an incentive to divorce him. If she tries, he can merely disappear. So instead of keeping the lion’s share of his income as “child support”, and bringing another man in to live off of his income as well, she is stuck with just what she can pick up from the latest man she is shacking up with. It is this ability to double dip that ruins the economic incentive to marry, not men having low incomes.
Aaaaand, in Virginia, they’ve elected the first opening insane congress critter, and this is seen as progress.
In addition to the cash-and-prizes incentives for US-born Hispanics, I’d also guess that US culture (especially poor US culture) is less supportive of marriage than are Latino countries, though I’m aware that traditional morality is being eroded there as well.
So the class that is already in poverty is doing something that would put them deeper into poverty. The only reason why it is being propped up is welfare…but this will end badly because a government paycheck can’t replace a father.
Plus eventually the government will run out of other people’s money to spend.
Aaaaand, in Virginia, they’ve elected the first opening insane congress critter, and this is seen as progress.
Oh, you mean the tranny who was elected in PW County?
I wasn’t very surprised. Virginia may still technically count as a purple state, but it’s purple in name only. Northern Virginia is quite blue, and the Repubs that are around are very much the country club, “moderate” types (fiscally conservative, socially moderate/liberal) and they all hate Trump. The Dems had a huge turnout advantage as well — many Repubs stayed home but almost all Dems came out, which led to results like that one. Overall places like Virginia and New Jersey are not great for Trump in general because (1) they don’t have the large populations of displaced whites that are his base and (2) they have upwardly mobile whites in large quantities, and these whites hate Trump, whether they are dem or repub. So so real surprises there, even for the tranny, really.
It didn’t help his cause that Gillespie ran on a “Trump without being Trump” kind of platform, which of course didn’t work in Virginia — Virginia didn’t vote for Trump in 16 anyway, dumbass.
Anyway these things are more ;like sporting events to me at this point. I don’t participate in elections pretty much any longer, with some exceptions.
It is this ability to double dip that ruins the economic incentive to marry, not men having low incomes.
That’s a good point, but it doesn’t seem to impact the upper ends. I suppose the women there can double dip, too, but the second scoop is not as likely to be as lucrative as the first scoop was.
@Novaseeker, yes, that was indeed the event to which I was referring.
Anyway these things are more ;like sporting events to me at this point. I don’t participate in elections pretty much any longer, with some exceptions.
Maybe we should start selling politician jerseys.
It is interesting. The cash incentive is still quite large. I think the difference is the status hit the MC and UMC woman will take if she doesn’t stick the landing and marry a second high status beta provider. And even if she remarries, there could still be the stigma of her children coming from a broken home. UMC mothers agonize about every slight advantage they can get for their children. They compete against their peers to get their children into the best schools, starting even (at times) with coveted pre schools. So even if the stigma is slight, it matters to MC and UMC mothers more than the working class and poor mothers. They want to be the ones snobbishly judging another woman’s child, not the one being snobbishly judged.
UMC mothers agonize about every slight advantage they can get for their children.
I have just started to scratch the bottom of this bracket/world and it is ruthless, in every aspect. A little off topic, but its not just women. When we bought our property in Montana, it started.
Keep in mind, the neighbors are very spread out. Some of the properties are thousands of acres. My place is near the bottom of several other properties uphill from me. We all share the same view of the huge Helena Valley below. When we were up there the first time (together) we were staking out the spot for the homesite with our architect and builder. One of the neighbors was driving down the road and stopped to say hello, but you could tell what was really going on. She said “you know we have a gentlmens agreement to not build in anyones view shed.” And I could tell she was concerned that my homesite is basically going to violate the “gentlemens” agreement. The truth is, there is nowhere else for it to go.
Keep in mind, all of these people are “old money.” The woman I am referring to is married into it–very high strung with a rich husband. The others inherited it.
When I got home, there was a letter in the mail from the conservation easement committee asking me to prove that I had access to the easement road that I use to get to my property. They said they were concerned that once construction starts there would be heavy equipment (trucks, excavators, etc) that would cause more than normal wear and tear on the road during the construction phase.
The easement, of couse, is a long strip of land that goes through numerous other properties to make it possible for me to get to mine. And, as you might expect it conveyed with the purchase. I had never had an experience like this, so I got all freaked out about it, got a lawyer, talked to the title company, etc and learned that this was not normal to be asked this. I had nothing to worry about, and in fact since the easement is granted to me, if I wanted to make a big deal about it, I could close the easement with a gate and decide if I want to give THEM access to it
The point was, they wanted to scare me off my property. They don’t want just anyone–like a lower middle class kid who became a doctor living up there. They don’t want a rooftop in their viewshed. The time to solve that problem was when the property was on the open market. They are like little kids on a playground. “You can’t be here! I am the boss of this playground!”
Its pretty rattling at first.
I live in a poor neighborhood. Working poor, not necessarliy welfare poor. There is crime but not like welfare poor neighborhood. It’s mostly Latin and Black….but more than few working class whites (mostly single men I might add) live here too.
The married are just about all fresh over the border working Mexicans. Guys who wear “cardhardt” shirts boots and stetsons. The dowdy ladies are very Catholic and they may be poor but their homes are well swept and tidy. More than a few single black fathers here and aint “no bullsh*t” going down in their house. All of us are concerned though. The whole neighborhood is slowly becoming gentrified with poorly built but super expensive loft apartments with gates, security and a an urbane snobbery from the hipsters that are moving in. A run down property….but livable suddenly catches fire. The out of town owner sells to a politically connected local developer and more super expensive apartments go in.
Yeah, it seems more and more like it’s about the money.
Click to access W28-Topline_marriage_blog-post_FINAL.pdf
They cite that they are “not financially stable enough” or they cite “they are not ready to settle down”.
I’m convinced that with average student loan balances and higher incomes for the more educated women, if she is already earning $50K, then she’s not gunning for a guy who is earning $50K. She is going after the guy making $100K (double). And she’s unlikely to “settle” for a man with same or less income because when she quits her jobs to get pregnant, that means $25K.
Show me the money, Jerry.
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I think the difference is the status hit the MC and UMC woman will take if she doesn’t stick the landing and marry a second high status beta provider. And even if she remarries, there could still be the stigma of her children coming from a broken home.
Yes, probably it is the difference in the level of stigma — a good deal (you are pretty much considered rather “flawed” and to have “failed” in that set if you divorce, regardless of what is happening in the marriage) as compared with almost none or none as you go down the economic ladder.
They don’t want just anyone–like a lower middle class kid who became a doctor living up there.
Oh that’s right. I came across that when I was a young lawyer. It’s the difference between having a high income and having wealth, and very, very few people actually have the latter, whereas a larger (although overall still small) group have the former. The people who have the latter are different than the people who have the former, culturally/socially, and they like to keep it that way, TYVM.
I wonder if they expect the Kingdom to be segregated by socioeconomic class?.
Its kind of weird because its kind of smoothed over now. But it seems only because I asserted my self so hard (lawyer, title company, fired back a letter). It was a real eye opener. I thought I was just this immigrants son who did good, served in the army and wanted to reitre out in the country and slow down.
Not so fast, buddy.
Scott, can confirm. Have got relatives married into old money. It starts with selecting of the obstetrician and the prenatal vitamins and personal trainer through the two weeks in private post-natal wards (you get sent home after 12h in the delivery suite, so they go across a park to get what used to be universal care) to the nanny for a year then enrolment in preschool and church year 1 to year 13 schools at birth.
And you better stay with that family, or you will be cut off.
I should add that these people routinely support progressive causes: they can shield their family from the consequences.
Those are in very short supply, plus most of them are already taken, whereas women making 40-50K with their soft degrees are a dime a dozen.
Don’t forget the non-direct issues. It is not all about money. Higher status also means lower church attendance, for example. Higher status usually means more education.
Remember also, the higher status are usually IN the higher status because they grew up with intact families to begin with, being trained since birth in basic life skills and EQ skills. The poor are several generations from that, and often have very little wisdom passed down to them on how to have and raise a family.
I was involved in inner city ministry for a long time. If momma and grandma are emotional teenagers, and you hate or don’t know your absentee father, why would you even try marriage … or know what to do if you did?
“”The people who have the latter are different than the people who have the former, culturally/socially, and they like to keep it that way,…….””
As someone who comes from “old money” you are correct. I do not hang around the “old money” crowd as I personally find them to be very boring,self righteous blowhards.Besides living off the interest of past made fortunes,they have no lives.The other thing about them is their very liberal,elitist views.Nothing pisses me off more than having to have a cocktail with people of this ilk and be forced to talk politics and current events.These people are in their “comfort zone” and always be.They have no ambition.They believe that there view of things is the only “right view”.They are very pathetic.Give me poor,broke and hungry any day.
“Ambition is never content,even on the summit of success”………Napoleon Bonaparte
“And even if she remarries, there could still be the stigma of her children coming from a broken home. . . . So even if the stigma is slight, it matters to MC and UMC mothers more than the working class and poor mothers. They want to be the ones snobbishly judging another woman’s child, not the one being snobbishly judged.”
Actually, the stigma isn’t “slight” and it extends at least as far as the solidly middle income families. I didn’t want my children to form a social network filled with children from divorced families, even though I was divorced myself. I stayed broke for many years to keep my children in parochial schools, and I know that my children experienced some degree of social pain based on the fact that they were the products of a broken home while being educated in an environment where divorce was not well accepted.
The children from broken families are often under supervised, and often have parents who are living immoral lifestyles that put them in a position of being “hypocrites” if they attempt to keep their children from following in their footsteps. The stigma is real, and people who are contemplating divorce need to understand that the stigma is real. A court-appointed mediator/psychologist once told me that post-divorce, the parent who had wanted the divorce always thought that the kids were doing great, while the parent who had opposed the divorce was always the one who could see that the children had serious issues post-divorce.
I hear from third parties that my own bio mom will often brag about how well my sister and I are doing. This despite the fact that both sister and I never want to hear from her again, and haven’t spoken to the old fruitbat in years. Women who seek divorce tend to delude themselves that their kids (and their own relationships with those kids) are fine, even when the kids are sort of a mess (we are) and hate her guts (we do).
This is less a response to Laura than it is a public service announcement to all those bitches out there who think that they are going to divorce their man, steal his money, and keep the kids in her orbit. I know some of y’all ho’s read Dalrock. Sooner or later, we grow up. We remember everything. We will hate you for ever. We will not give a shit when you’re old and infirm. We will celebrate when you finally kack it. Guaranteed.
@Boxer: Just for the record, I was the one who opposed the divorce. But you are right that a lot of women (and some men) think that they are going to “win it all” and instead end up with absolutely nothing. I have come across plenty, mostly female, who are dead flat broke, the second or third marriage has also gone belly up, and the kids have moved a thousand miles away or more, and only make rare duty visits, if that.
seventiesjason @ November 8, 2017 at 2:51 pm:
“All of us are concerned though. The whole neighborhood is slowly becoming gentrified with poorly built but super expensive loft apartments with gates, security and a an urbane snobbery from the hipsters that are moving in. A run down property….but livable suddenly catches fire. The out of town owner sells to a politically connected local developer and more super expensive apartments go in.”
A more than reasonable concern. In San Jose, there are entire streets with RVs parked bumper-to-bumper: the working homeless. Not an oxymoron when rents begin at $2,500/mo. The Bay Area is just as bad, only no parking too.
Where do these hipsters get the money? From Section 8 vouchers? I’m an engineer-equivalent and basically rent a children’s treehouse. It’s like the people next door live completely different lives in a completely different economy with a completely different culture, even when they aren’t actually a different race.
Maybe I am sentimental, but all of us have only one Mother and there is no law that requires Mothers to have the qualities of The Blessed Virgin or Florence Nightingale. For better or worse they are our Mother and frankly, without them, we would not be here. That, as we become teenagers and above, they may by our lights fail does not prevent their having cared for us as infants.
Nothing to do with me of course but I hope your heart may bend somewhat.
@ Gunner Q says:
November 9, 2017 at 12:23 pm
“I’m an engineer-equivalent and basically rent a children’s treehouse.”
Dude, you seriously need to move. There are plenty of cities in the US where a man with your skills can live like a king.
@GunnerQ: Some of the hipsters are being subsidized by parents; others may have stumbled into a “sweetheart” deal of some kind. One of my classmates in law school was married and living in a beautiful guest house on an ocean-front Malibu estate. In addition to the free rent, if I remember correctly, he was receiving a salary as well. The absentee owners wanted to make sure that somebody was living on the property all year. Obviously, this guy was the envy of the entire law school class.
But I know what you are talking about. Most people these days have fairly crummy salaries, and are always at risk of being laid off, while rents are off the charts. I often wonder how people I meet are managing to buy a house in an upscale neighborhood, or keep three children in swanky private schools, etc., when they don’t have the kind stellar careers that would seem to make their lifestyle realistic. It’s a mystery for the most part, although a surprising number of people turn out to have inherited a house or a nest egg of some kind.
What I really don’t understand is why people who have jobs that don’t pay much stay put in an area like San Francisco. Many of those people who are working full time yet living in RVs could own a very nice house in flyover country. Is San Francisco really that special that someone would stay there even if they have to live in a two bedroom apartment with three roommates? Apparently so!
@Mark As someone who comes from “old money” you are correct. I do not hang around the “old money” crowd as I personally find them to be very boring,self righteous blowhards.Besides living off the interest of past made fortunes,they have no lives.The other thing about them is their very liberal,elitist views.Nothing pisses me off more than having to have a cocktail with people of this ilk and be forced to talk politics and current events.These people are in their “comfort zone” and always be.They have no ambition.They believe that there view of things is the only “right view”.They are very pathetic.Give me poor,broke and hungry any day.
Mark, I always appreciate your perspective from a place most of us will never have the opportunity to observe.
I’ve said it before….divorce is legalized child abuse. And to think most if them are instigated by unhappy broads. A lot of women shouldn’t be married and having children if they think marriage is all about them.
Is San Francisco really that special that someone would stay there even if they have to live in a two bedroom apartment with three roommates? Apparently so!
The entire San Francisco Bay Area has become an overcrowded, overpriced, SJW-infested cesspool unfit for habitation by decent human beings. I grew up in San Jose during the 70s (my mother still lives there, in the 3-bedroom, 2-bath 1100-square-foot stucco house she and Dad bought 44 years ago for $29,000 that is now valued at an obscene and inexcuseable $800,000), and despite not having lived there in 38 years, am compelled to visit for a few weeks each year to check up on Mom (whom I’m BEGGING to come live with us in Arizona).
Everytime I go back, I notice that:
1. Traffic and congestion have become more and more intolerable.
2. The cost of living has become more and more intolerable (for obvious reasons).
3. “Non-Americans” now outnumber natives by orders of magnitude (although one could fairly challenge the notion that Californians have truly qualified as Americans within the last 40 years).
4. None of my old high school friends live in the Bay Area anymore due to the unbearable cost and congestion.
5. The place is overrun with what can only be charitably called “clueless, narcissistic, solipsistic SJW assholes with delusions of moral superiority.” (See 1 through 4)
6. Due to 1 through 5, state and local government is strangling the economy. Because of this, only an idiot or a trust fund baby libtard (that would be pretty much all of the Silicon Valley industry execs) would start or locate a business there.
I’ve had tech recruiters offer me lucrative positions in San Jose. I’ve told them all that I’ll becomea a homeless panhandler here in Arizona first, and that I wouldn’t go back to San Jose (or anywhere else in NoCal) even as a corpse for burial.
Laura is correct. There is NO reason for anybody other than the Limousine Libtards to move to or stay in that area. No one else can prosper there, or even live a decent human life. There are dozens of other parts of the country still unconverged in which you can still live a life with some dignity in decent conditions. Do move there soon.
San Francisco has always been expensive for its time. When I moved out of that communal loft in 1999, and scored a rental condo in the Marina / Cow Hollow. I was paying $3,540.00 per month for the condo. The owner was an oddball lady who lived in Palm Springs, and she only raised my rent once in the whole six years I lived there. It was a one bedroom condo. Built probably in the mid 1980’s and refurbished in the late 1990’s. The living room was decent sized. I had a cool view of the street action (3rd floor). Gas fire place. My neighbors were straight up smug liberals. Andrew Firestone of “The Bachelor” TV show fame lived in a house a block away. The writer Michael Northpoint lived in my building. I would see crooner Chris Isaak (dude ONLY dated Asian gals) on Chestnut Street / Union Street here and there.
I worked in San Jose at the main IBM campus (which now GONE), and I lived there “briefly” before I moved to San Francisco in late 1996 (Park Ave, near Santa Clara U)
San Francsico is way too expensive, even for a professional. You have to land that “sweet deal” or inheirit property from family
I grew up in Santa Cruz County, which is just south of Silicon Valley, and I won’t go back. I miss the redwoods, but as others have noted the place is basically unliveable.
@ Original Laura
The problem right now is that the price of all things have become detached from reality. You can thank your so-called leaders and elite minds for this shit-storm
Interest rates of 8% would soon crush idiotic home valuations.
The worst thing I’ve seen in the past 10 years was the world’s combined effort to keep the party going for a little bit longer.
If we’d let losers be losers in 2008, then we’d already be well down the path to recovery……and houses would be dirt cheap.
Cheapening the cost of money so that the big boys far and wide can become landlords has not served the common man.
It’s about control, and brushing the middle-class aside. Not so much aside……..eliminated.
A dumb, drugged, incoherent, ignorant populace is easier to control than an intelligent, critical thinking one.
Divorce just plays right into the hands of that dumbing-down / impoverishing of the populace.
DIVIDE and CONQUER – it has always been this way.
@ seventiesjason says:
November 9, 2017 at 3:18 pm
“When I moved out of that communal loft in 1999, and scored a rental condo in the Marina / Cow Hollow. I was paying $3,540.00 per month for the condo.”
I pay $2,000/month for a 5-bedroom, two story house with a basement and two-car garage, on twelve acres, with a stocked 1/2 acre pond.
Yeah SF and the Bay in general have been very expensive for a long time. When I was student in the Bay in the late 80s, the City was exorbitantly expensive, and housing in the Silicon Valley area of the peninsula was becoming very expensive as well. Not as astronomical as now, mind you, but for the pricing of the time it was *very* expensive.
I have been back several times since then — the traffic congestion is terrible now, much worse than it was then, and it wasn’t “good” then. The place has been overrun with VCs and techies as well, and not just the Valley but the City, too. SF is a unique place and well worth visiting, but gosh it would be hell to live there now, even leaving the politics aside.
Original Laura said:
But you are right that a lot of women (and some men) think that they are going to “win it all” and instead end up with absolutely nothing. I have come across plenty, mostly female, who are dead flat broke, the second or third marriage has also gone belly up, and the kids have moved a thousand miles away or more, and only make rare duty visits, if that.
Is that because they actually got nothing from the divorce settlement? And if so, how? Was it because of the laws of their state or a judged just shut them down?
Or did they end up broke because they received a divorce windfall and then didn’t know how to manage it?
Excuse me, *a judge
In one of his pointed essays, Theodore Dalrymple once noted, “Elites often make grand and frankly stupid statements about life and marriage. This is done not because they want to be freed of moral constraints, but because they have broken those moral constraints and the fat that those constraints are there bothers them. When the ideas percolate down to the working class, they wreak havoc and devastation” (my paraphrase).
The Lord spoke through Amos in the Old Testament:
And the LORD asked me, “What do you see, Amos?” “A plumb line,” I replied. Then the Lord said, “Look, I am setting a plumb line among my people Israel; I will spare them no longer. (Amos 7:8)
Plumblines are used to ensure bricks are laid straight when making walls. The absence of a plumbline leads to a crooked wall.
Two things you can do: Fix the wall and straighten it,
Get rid of the plumbline.
No prizes for guessing which one our elites have chosen.
Oscar @ 1:29 pm
“Dude, you seriously need to move. There are plenty of cities in the US where a man with your skills can live like a king.”
If you know some cities that want more white male Californians then I’m listening.
Original Laura @ 1:36 pm:
“What I really don’t understand is why people who have jobs that don’t pay much stay put in an area like San Francisco.”
Cities like SF support their lower class with welfare subsidies and the middle class types unionize or something. The system works as long as you’re willing & able to be a part of the system.
The ones that won’t be part of the system, that don’t play ethnic favoritism & backroom politics and don’t suck the welfare teat at every chance, they’re the ones in RVs and treehouses. It seems everywhere is getting to be like that. Even the Midwest has no shortage of Codes of Conduct, femcunt bosses, vibrants and Obamacare.
As I recall. I was paying in 1995-1996 in San Jose on Park Ave (before I moved to San Francisco) for a 1 bedroom apartment $575.00 a month……3/4 mile from downtown light rail connections to IBM……I was right near the Egyptian Museum (which was actually a very cool, funky little museum), the Rose Garden and that stretch of “The Alameda” is one of the most beautiful streets in San Jose. Have not been around that hood since 1999 or so.
@ Gunner Q says:
November 9, 2017 at 5:09 pm
“If you know some cities that want more white male Californians then I’m listening.”
If you don’t mind working in aerospace, the company I work for is hiring. So are many other companies in the metro area where I live. Seriously, if you’re interested, click on my name and email me, or leave me a message.
“”Mark, I always appreciate your perspective from a place most of us will never have the opportunity to observe.””
Thank you. One thing about me is that I am observant.The things that I have observed about the “old money” crowd go back to when I was young.I watched my father socialize with them from a purely business standpoint.I also watched my father pack a lunch everyday and then head for the office.He was not being a cheapskate.He realized that he did not have to eat in 4 star restaurants everyday for lunch.He was correct.I always admired that about him.My brother and I are the same way.I do go to the fancy restaurants but,only about twice a month.If that often.I do not like the crowd.I would much rather be on a construction site and have lunch with the contractors.They are down in the dirt.They have a much better reality of everyday life than the “old money” crowd. I always carry a pair of safety boots and hard hat in the trunk of my car or limo.When the “sandwich truck” rolls up I always buy for the guys and I always bring several cases of beer for them for after work. Sometimes that means buying lunch and beer for 30 or more hungry and thirsty guys.Do you think I ever have labour problems?…..Not a chance!
“We must serve the people worthily, and not occupy ourselves in trying to please them. The best way, to gain their affections is to do them good.”………..Napoleon Bonaparte
@Casey, @Gunner, @et. al:
I wouldn’t sign a million dollar mortgage for a house no matter how much money I was earning. Who can be sure what tomorrow will bring? Who would want to have such a gigantic debt hanging over them?
I bought my present house four years ago for $25,000 cash. It had been vacant for three years, and no one would buy it because it had a partial flat roof that had been leaking for years, etc. I closed off that “wing” of the house until I could afford to have the whole house re-roofed and the whole thing turned into a hip roof. (I had originally planned to just re-roof it again as a flat roof, but my brother-in-law who is an architect/civil engineer drew up a set of plans to make it a hipped roof because he said that flat roofs are always a problem.) The house is in a very visible location, so lots of people stopped and asked if they could come inside, etc. The contractor ended up getting a lot of new business. When all the work that I get done is finally finished, my total investment will probably be less than $125,000. The man who is going to build my kitchen cabinets said that the house looks like a Fay Jones house, which is hilarious, because my brother-in-law studied under Fay Jones many years ago. I always wanted a house made of stone, and I never thought it would be possible. The house is such a blessing to me, and I consider it a gift from the Lord.
Gunner, PLEASE seriously consider the job opportunities that Oscar mentioned. If the jobs at his company are not a good match for your skill set and preferences, keep looking. I’m not sure what you mean when you say that you are living in a children’s treehouse, but winter is coming and it can’t be healthy for you to be living in any kind of substandard housing. You are obviously a very bright guy — nobody on this website makes me laugh more than you do. Here in Hooterville where I live, you could be flipping burgers and living at a higher standard of living than you are now working a professional level job in San Jose/San Francisco, and no would care about your political beliefs. Any American working forty hours per week deserves a real home, even if they once said the wrong thing at some compulsory diversity & intersectionality seminar. I’m praying for you.
I wouldn’t sign a million dollar mortgage for a house no matter how much money I was earning. Who can be sure what tomorrow will bring? Who would want to have such a gigantic debt hanging over them?
I honestly can’t imagine anybody in America signing up for ANY kind of home mortgage in the future. There is simply NO WAY that such an arrangement is sustainable, given that the economy of 21st Century America will be characterized by one word: unstable. Very, VERY few people are going to have a steadily reliable income stream sufficient to sustain a 30 or even 15-year FRM. Indeed, if any aspect of the current U.S. economy needs a permanent correction, preferably in the form of a catastrophic collapse, it is the housing market. Although the financialized U.S. economy in all of its aspects is completely divorced from economic reality, nowhere is this more blatantly evident than in the residential real estate market (and no, clearly NOBODY learned a damned thing from the fiasco of 2007-2008).
Oh, and end the Fed!
If people were logical, I would agree. But people will continue to do it because of “fear of missing out”. Even though we had a massive crash 10 years ago, the masses really believe it won’t happen again. So they yammer about “the property ladder”, “appreciation”, “equity”, etc.
“Everyone” seems to know “someone” pulling down 200K-300K a year flipping houses, without doing any real work, so of course they want to get in on the action. No thinks that they might get laid off and not be able to pay the $3000+ mortgage payment, and find out that they aren’t the only ones who lost their jobs and suddenly everyone is afraid of catching a falling knife and they can’t unload the house unless they bring a check to the closing.
feeriker @ 11:51 am:
“Indeed, if any aspect of the current U.S. economy needs a permanent correction, preferably in the form of a catastrophic collapse, it is the housing market.”
This. I have insights into real estate and the housing markets were not allowed to correct in 2010. That means another correction is coming and will be at least a trilllion dollars worse.
Which is why I don’t believe interest rates will be going up, despite all the head fakes from the Fed and other central banks. Unfortunately, the global economy is painted into a corner. Just all the sovereign debt owed around the world will keep rates down, Of course, this comes at a cost. Hoping to retire? Think again, since low interest rates will keep annuity payments low, low, low. There’s a reason while pension plans, especially the state employee ones, are going broke
Houses in Fresno are still relativity cheap compared to other larger cities in California. My old roommate bought his house for “cash” in 2009 at the bottom of the crash. It was a 1920’s house in the “Tower District” (a funky-cool neighborhood in Fresno) for $27,000. Most of these houses are two bedroom, one bath and a decent sized back-yard. It had a really cool sun room off the larger bedroom which he has converted to his “shop (He’s an artist / muralist….he actually makes a decent living off his art degree. He does faux finishes, childrens bedrooms….stuff like that too), and each house in the ‘Tower District’ is a “little different” than every other one. It needed work. Electrical. A roof, the interior plaster needed an overhaul. It was a rental and as usual the landlord lived in LA or SF Bay Area.
He did mechanics first. New plumbing, new electrical, and a new roof. He is now going room by room and gutting it. After almost ten years, it’s def on its feet again as a pretty cool house. He has done “short term” loans for each item. Pays it off, takes out another loan and continues the process.
Back in New York State in the small Adirondack town I grew up in……my father sold the house and all 140 acres (137 wooded) for $674,000. He and my mother bought most of the land in 1968, and built a brand new four bedroom house in 1970 for a total of $47,000.00. He moved because he can no longer shovel / plow the driveway….it’s almost 1/2 mile long. Also, he’s 81. If something happened to him he said “It would be days before anyone knew something was wrong with me, and I would probably be dead”
He bought a small condo outside Saratoga Springs and lives there now. He was sad to sell the property, but he did tell me “You’re in the Will, I won’t tell you how much….but you will be getting a significant portion of cash when I am gone. I want you to use it for your retirement!”
Middle and Upper Class have less reason to marry because of the divorce rape that we keep hearing about so this means the argument is circular. You can’t complain about it unless you’re in the situation. And the poor and working class aren’t getting divorced raped since they have no money.
Hoping to retire? Think again, since low interest rates will keep annuity payments low, low, low.
Yup. I just laugh at my peers (the second half of the Boomer generation) who seriously think that they’re going to be able to retire AT ALL, let alone within 10-15 years. What used to be called “common [sic] sense” based on first-hand experience with real-life economic reality, should have suffocated that delusion early on.
1. A fiat U.S. dollar now based on nothing of intrinsic, tangible value that has lost 95 percent of its purchasing power over the last 100 years (and that continues to weaken).
2. A pension system dependent on overvalued tradeable securities that are based on same said fiat dollar – and the value of which will collapse once an entire generation retires en masse.
The only practical near-term workaround is to either invest in something (a business of some sort) that generates a continuous stream of cash income, or perhsps buying precious metals as a hedge against hyperinflation. Relying on your 401K+Social Security will be economic suicide.
I don’t want most of them, but Austin is certainly full of many. You would fit reasonably well in the DFW area, especially if you are not the typical Californian. I only got here about 20 years ago, but I have fit in reasonably well. (I am originally from the Midwest, though I have lived on both coasts for a short while.)
I can relate.
I am early retired at 52. I got bored so to make some play money and to enhance my passion I took a part time job at a stable. I have had my own ranch with 5 drafts for over ten years.
All the richies and their spoiled princesses think of me as just the ranch hand. The owner knows I have way more experience than her. I just quietly laugh at themspending hundreds unnecessarily on useless trinkets or supplements. I get a free workout and paid to watch the social up one manship of the pretty people.
Few days ago I took a call while up to my literally in horse sh*t. Had it on speaker by accident.
One of the “horsey ladies” recognized the name of my personal banker as he said “its blah blah calling.” Well after I got off she inquired “personal call at work?” In that snotty tone.
I just laughed and said ” nah, just blah blah needing instructions on my account, no big.”
She Knows blah blah only handles 6 figure portfolios in this small city.
She was beyond stunned.
I just whistled and went back to shovelling sh*t.
Being financially independent, married mgtow, and a natural asshole is sooooo much fun.
I checked out of the equally expensive Toronto market 15 years ago.
I had a 50 acre farm, refurbished century farm house less than 90 minutes out for under 250k. And I got an equal management job for 90k because no one wanted a job “outside Toronto” in a city of 50k population.
Sold and retired last year at 52. Now rent a two bedroom 1200 foot cottage on seven acres of woodland for 1,100 a month fifteen minutes from town. The other 1000 a month I would pay for a Toronto condo is going to pay for a winter house in the bahamas.
Plus the freedom to do “joe jobs” for fun is as the commercial says …priceless.
Any job in S.F, NYC, L.A. also exist in Butte, Milwalki, Cleveland, or better smallville 50k pop cities.
Cities dying for skilled workers.
Mark Regnerus posts an article verifying AF/BB. This data point suprised me:
“23 percent of men ages 24–39 who have not completed high school report having had sex at least seven times in the past two weeks, well above the 5 percent of college-educated men and 4 percent of men with advanced degrees. What about high-school graduates? Twenty six percent of them report having had sex at least five times in the past two weeks, still above the 15 percent reported by college graduates. (More education is consistently inversely associated with recent sexual frequency among young men, even after obvious controls, including marital status.)”
Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/453542/cheap-sex-explains-decline-marriage?utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_content=5a043ced04d3012fb609d6e6&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
Just a few examples
These are canadian but the same issue. People only think of Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, Halifax while medium centres are dying for help especially professionals.
E.g. three years ago I was project manager on a 15 million LTC facility build. I had my choice of all of three structural engineering firms because the other firms in a hundred mile radius didnt have engineers available. Also took weeks of delays waiting for welders to be available.
“”I checked out of the equally expensive Toronto market 15 years ago.””
Good for you.I would have no problem living in the Trenton area either.Nice place! You are not the only one.In fact,if you look at the housing prices and building permits being issued in areas like Hamilton,Guelph,Kitchener,Brantford etc. you will find that the only reason that these areas are booming is because of people moving out of TO.I have a friend that lives on the West side of Hamilton.He says that traffic is so backed up that he has to leave at 5am in the morning to arrive in TO at 7am then sleeps in his car for 90 minutes and then goes to work.He leaves work at 5pm…..and gets home at 8:45pm. Only to get up in the morning and do it all over again.The trip in the morning,if at was straight through,should take 45 minutes….same as the return trip.I find this myself.What should take 15 minutes to drive to the office from my house takes over an hour….on a good morning!
mgtow horseman, Mark.
My Dad gave me a beautiful Shell Oil map of Ontario from the late 40’s. Nice work of art. Between the major centres there was rural areas. New maps of Ontario look like one huge city. Gave the map to a professional blues musician who was originally from there after I sold him my minty 1930 ‘s Dobro guitar amp.
As for skills shortages, I have seen this before and not falling for that again. i have worked in the electrical trade and worked in other sub-trades. I am currently working in the medical field. I also will be getting copyrights in various western countries and east Asia after I do more research. Don;t want to sell them totally, but would like a percentage of sales. I am getting ahead, but it wasn’t raining when Noah built the Ark.
there are plenty of thirsty men quite happy to wife up nearly all of the 30 something carouselers
They are welcome to them. By 30, women are retreads for the most part, so any guy that wants them is welcome to them. I see it like getting that new car that just rolls off the assembly line – that’s a woman that just hung out the sign that her legs are open for business. So guys that want to buy the used car is more than welcome to it when you’re finished with it. You get women young when they cause no problems and enjoy them till they have about 50K miles on them – around 25, then trade that one in for a newer model. Just like in cars – what you’re finished with another man may want to pick up and drive, paying the price for all of the things that you did to it when it was new. So she’ll make him pay for every slight you ever did to her. He’s welcome to her.
Original Laura @ November 10, 2017 at 10:22 am:
“I’m not sure what you mean when you say that you are living in a children’s treehouse, but winter is coming and it can’t be healthy for you to be living in any kind of substandard housing.”
Winter? This is California. We don’t know what winter is. It’s why people want to live here.
Relax, the “renting a treehouse” is (mostly) a local joke. I’m a boarder. That gives me little space but also insulates me from a lot of headaches regarding property ownership in Libturd Land. It also brings some respect because many elderly couples like to keep a big, athletic guy like me around to ward off crime and in case of emergencies. Their children can’t always afford to live near them while the grandkids are young.
Oscar’s got the idea in my head that maybe it’s time to try again. Frightening prospect; my entry into the working world was the stuff of nightmares. Suffice to say, I got my first full-time, permanent job at the age of 29 despite trying in two different states.
To quote from a Cary Grant film, None but the Lonely Heart:
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